MP

Macro Pulse宏观脉搏

Economic Data Intelligence经济数据前沿

Official Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 官方来源：美国劳工统计局 (BLS) | Released: Aug 7, 2026 · 08:30 ET 发布时间：2026年8月7日 · 美东 08:30 | Last verified: Aug 16, 2026 最后核验：2026年8月16日
CES CPS Preliminary初值
July 2026 Employment Situation 2026年7月就业形势报告

Nonfarm Payrolls非农就业人数
fell by 23,000减少 23,000 人

Well below consensus of +80,000. Prior two months revised lower by 103,000 combined. Unemployment rate edged to 4.1% as participation fell to 61.4%. 远低于预期 +80,000。前两月合计下修 103,000。失业率降至 4.1%，劳动参与率同步下滑至 61.4%。

NFP Change非农变动

-23K

Unemployment失业率

4.1%

Private Payrolls私人部门

+30K

AHE YoY时薪同比

+3.2%

Financial Dashboard金融仪表盘

Seasonally Adjusted季节性调整

Consensus预期值

+80K

vs Actual -23K实际 -23K

Prior (Rev.)前值(修正)

+20K

was +57K原 +57K

2-Mo Revision两月累计下修

-103K

May + Jun

Participation劳动参与率

61.4%

-0.1 pp

Avg Hourly Earn.平均时薪

$37.62

+0.1% m/m

Next Release下次发布

Sep 4

08:30 ET

Industry Job Changes (Jul 2026)行业就业变动（2026年7月）

BLS CES

Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted, thousands.来源：BLS CES。季节性调整，千人。

NFP Monthly Change (2026 YTD)非农月度变动（2026年初至今）

BLS

May & June reflect latest revisions. 3-month avg ≈ +20K.5、6月为最新修正值。近三个月平均约 +20K。

Historical Context历史数据背景

Last 18 months · BLS data近18个月 · BLS数据

12-Month Avg Change12个月平均变动

+34K

Prior 12 months过去12个月

YoY Employment Gain同比就业增加

+316K

Jul 2025 → Jul 20262025年7月→2026年7月

Total Nonfarm Level非农就业总水平

158.86M

July 20262026年7月

Unemployment Range失业率区间

4.1–4.4%

Past 12 months过去12个月

NFP Monthly Change (Last 18 Months)非农月度变动（近18个月）

BLS

Includes latest revisions. Negative months highlighted in red.含最新修正。负增长月份以红色标示。

Unemployment Rate Trend失业率走势

BLS CPS

Seasonally adjusted U-3 rate. Latest: 4.1% (Jul 2026).季节性调整 U-3 失业率。最新：4.1%（2026年7月）。

Monthly Historical Snapshot月度历史快照

Selected months · Seasonally adjusted精选月份 · 季节性调整
Month月份 NFP Change非农变动 Unemp. Rate失业率 AHE YoY时薪同比 Participation参与率 Total Level总水平
Jul 2026 -23K 4.1% 3.2% 61.4% 158.86M
Jun 2026 +20K 4.2% 3.4% 61.5% 158.88M
May 2026 +63K 4.3% 3.5% 61.5% 158.86M
Apr 2026 +115K 4.3% 3.6% 61.6% 158.80M
Mar 2026 +178K 4.3% 3.7% 61.7% 158.65M
Feb 2026 -92K 4.4% 3.8% 61.8% 158.44M
Jan 2026 +130K 4.3% 3.9% 61.9% 158.59M
Dec 2025 +50K 4.4% 4.0% 62.0% 158.43M
Jul 2025 +64K 4.3% 3.9% 62.2% 158.54M

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some earlier months use revised figures. Levels in millions of persons. 来源：美国劳工统计局。部分早期月份使用修正后数据。总水平单位为百万人。

Official BLS Explainers BLS 官方解读视频

All BLS Videos → 全部官方视频 →

The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not hold live video press conferences for the monthly Employment Situation release. Instead, they publish clear educational videos that explain how the data is collected, calculated, and revised. Here are the most useful ones for understanding Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. 劳工统计局不会为每月就业形势报告举办直播新闻发布会。他们发布清晰的教育视频，解释数据如何采集、计算与修正。以下是理解非农就业和失业率最有用的官方视频内容整理。

CPS · Household Survey

How the Unemployment Rate Is Calculated 失业率是如何计算的

BLS interviews people each month and places them into three groups: Employed, Unemployed (no job + actively looking + available), or Not in the labor force (retired, students, caregivers, etc.). BLS 每月采访民众，将他们分为三类：就业、失业（没有工作 + 正在积极找工作 + 可立即上岗）、或不在劳动力（退休、学生、照顾家庭等）。

  • → Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed劳动力 = 就业 + 失业
  • → Unemployment Rate = Unemployed ÷ Labor Force失业率 = 失业人数 ÷ 劳动力
Watch official video (1:24) 观看官方视频 (1分24秒)

CES · Establishment Survey

Why Job Numbers Get Revised 为什么就业数据会被修正

Each month’s first estimate is based on incomplete survey responses. BLS revises the previous two months as more employers report, then performs a large annual “benchmark” revision using nearly complete unemployment-insurance tax records. 每月初值基于不完整的企业问卷。BLS 会在后续两个月根据更多企业回报修正前值，并每年用接近完整的失业保险税记录做一次大型「基准修正」。

  • → Monthly revisions (next 2 months)月度修正（随后2个月）
  • → Annual benchmark (usually February)年度基准修正（通常2月）
Watch official video 观看官方视频

Methodology

What Is Seasonal Adjustment? 什么是季节性调整？

Many jobs rise and fall with the calendar (retail hiring before holidays, construction in summer, education jobs in the school year). Seasonal adjustment removes these predictable patterns so we can see the underlying economic trend. 许多工作随日历起伏（节假日前零售招聘、夏季建筑、学年教育岗位）。季节性调整剔除这些可预测的规律，让我们看清真正的经济趋势。

  • → Removes holiday, weather & school-year effects剔除节日、天气与学年影响
  • → Makes month-to-month comparisons meaningful让月度对比更有意义
Find on BLS Videos page 在 BLS 视频页查找

Quick tip for readers 阅读小贴士

When you see big downward revisions (like the recent −103K for May+June), it often means earlier estimates were based on fewer company responses. The final picture after revisions and the annual benchmark is more reliable than the first-day headline. 当你看到大幅下修（例如近期5+6月合计−10.3万）时，通常是因为初值基于较少企业回报。经过月度修正和年度基准后的最终图景，比首日头条更可靠。

More CPS Videos 更多 CPS 视频

AI InsightsAI 智能解读 Beta

Generated from official BLS data · Not financial advice基于 BLS 官方数据生成 · 非投资建议

1. Headline vs. Reality1. 头条与实质

The -23K print looks weak, but private payrolls still rose +30K. Most of the decline came from government (-53K), especially local education (-50K). Seasonal factors may have amplified the drop.

-23K 表面偏弱，但私人部门仍增 30K。主要拖累来自政府（-53K），尤其是地方政府教育（-50K）。季节性因素可能放大了降幅。

2. Unemployment Rate Decline is Misleading2. 失业率下降具有误导性

The rate fell to 4.1% mainly because 264K people left the labor force. Participation dropped to 61.4% (near multi-year lows). This is a supply-side contraction, not demand-driven improvement.

失业率降至 4.1% 主要因 26.4 万人退出劳动力市场。参与率降至 61.4%（接近多年低位）。这是供给端收缩，而非需求改善。

3. Revisions Change the Narrative3. 修正改变了叙事

May and June were revised down by a combined 103K. The three-month average is now only about +20K — close to the level needed to keep unemployment stable given slower population growth.

5月和6月合计下修 103K。近三个月平均仅约 +20K，已接近在当前人口增速下维持失业率稳定所需的水平。

4. Implications for the Fed4. 对美联储的含义

Wage growth cooled to +3.2% YoY. Combined with softer payrolls, this reduces near-term pressure for rate hikes. Markets have dialed back September hike odds. August data (Sep 4) will be critical.

薪资增速放缓至同比 +3.2%。叠加疲软就业，降低了近期加息压力。市场已下调9月加息概率。8月数据（9月4日）将至关重要。

Key Report重磅数据 BLS· Aug 7, 20262026年8月7日

U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Shed Jobs in July; Prior Gains Revised Sharply Lower 美国经济7月意外减少就业岗位，前值大幅下修

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July, significantly missing the consensus expectation of an 80,000 increase. Combined with downward revisions of 66,000 for May and 37,000 for June, the labor market picture looks notably softer than previously assessed.

美国劳工统计局报告显示，7月非农就业人数减少23,000人，大幅低于市场预期的增加80,000人。叠加5月下修66,000人、6月下修37,000人，劳动力市场整体显得比此前评估更为疲软。

Private-sector employment rose by 30,000, while government employment fell by 53,000. Health care continued to add jobs (+22,600) and construction gained 22,000. Leisure and hospitality (−40,000) and retail trade (−19,400) posted notable losses.

私人部门就业增加30,000人，政府部门减少53,000人。医疗保健继续增加岗位（+22,600），建筑业增加22,000人。休闲与酒店业（-40,000）和零售贸易（-19,400）出现明显减少。

Average hourly earnings rose just 2 cents to $37.62 (+0.1% m/m, +3.2% y/y). The average workweek was little changed.

平均时薪仅上涨2美分至37.62美元（环比+0.1%，同比+3.2%）。平均工时基本持平。

Detailed Industry Breakdown行业详细变动

Industry行业 Change (000s)变动（千人） Trend趋势
Total Nonfarm总非农-23.0▼
Total Private私人部门+30.0▲
Government政府部门-53.0▼
└ Local Education└ 地方政府教育-50.0▼
Health Care & Social Assistance医疗保健与社会援助+22.6▲
Construction建筑业+22.0▲
Leisure & Hospitality休闲与酒店业-40.0▼
Retail Trade零售贸易-19.4▼
Financial Activities金融活动-14.0▼
Professional & Business Services专业与商业服务+18.0▲
Manufacturing制造业+5.0▲

Source: BLS Employment Situation Summary Table B. Seasonally adjusted.来源：BLS Employment Situation Summary Table B。季节性调整。